Odd Citizen
An Odd Citizen’s Search For Vanishing Freedoms

Apr

15

Global Warming & Y2K

Filed Under Uncategorized, Wisdom

Observation from conclusion of: The Y2K scare: causes, costs and cures
by John Quiggin
from:Risk & Sustainable Management Group
Schools of Economics and Political Science
University of Queensland
Brisbane, 4072
rsmg@uq.edu.au
http://www.uq.edu.au/economics/rsmg
Australian Public Policy Program Working Paper: 1/P04

The Y2K scare: causes, costs and cures, a PDF file

Does this conclusion about the Y2K scare in any way resemble the state of the current Global Warming debate?

“From the perspective of public administration, the two most compelling observations
relate to conformity and collective amnesia. The response to Y2K shows how relatively
subtle characteristics of a policy problem may produce a conformist response in which no
policy actors have any incentive to oppose, or even to critically assess, the dominant
view. Moreover, in a situation where a policy has been adopted and implemented with
unanimous support, or at least without any opposition, there is likely to be little interest
in critical evaluation when it appears that the costs of the policy have outweighed the
benefits.”

This is so well stated that nothing else needs to be said. After all, a mania is a mania, a panic is a panic.

Comments

3 Responses to “Global Warming & Y2K”

  1. bkalafut on April 17th, 2008 2:04 pm

    Yes, but can stuff like this technical article or this Pew Center whitepaper really be said to be in any way the product of panic?

    What about the analysis cited in this news article?

    (Note that as usual I don’t know what’s beyond a pay wall and what isn’t.)

  2. admin on April 22nd, 2008 7:13 am

    Thanks for your comment, but:

    1) Article #1- Discusses warming during one of Arizona’s periodic doughts. Typical of the lazy logic of global warming activists the summary (report not available) says:

    “Local land use and multidecadal modes of the global climate system such as the Pacific decadal oscillation and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation do not appear to be principal drivers of this warming. Minimum temperature variability in the Sonoran Desert does, however, correspond to global temperature variability attributed to human-dominated global warming.”

    OK, so why does this point to “human-dominated global warming”? Show us more!

    2) Article #2- Suppose it’s true. Is Cap & Trade for power plants alone worth $17,000 per family in the U.S. See earlier article about senate bill in this blog.

    3) News article - we can profit from efficiencies in energy use. Ok, that’s fine. If its that good, then sell it to the consumer as a benefit. Nothing wrong with that, but skip the hysteria.

    CONCLUSION: What this original post points out is the similarity in crowd psychology between the Y2K scare and the Global Warming Hysteria. Those who remember the Y2K mania will remember a flood of “authoritative” articles about the looming crisis of Y2K. It’s the identical phenomenon now.

  3. bkalafut on April 22nd, 2008 6:17 pm

    (1) You can’t really call an abstract “lazy logic” without reading the whole paper. I can send it to you, if you like.

    (2) Quite clearly, the Pew Center disagrees with that $17000 figure! It’s clear that there are good ways and bad ways to do cap-and-trade.

    (3) The consulting firm’s report is to some extent a confirmation of the Porter Hypothesis that has there being a large cushion of win-win adjustments to be made to meet a free-market-environemntalist regulation.

    Re: Conclusion: It’s only identical if one refuses to distinguish between modest and thorough science/economics and rushed, hyperbolic pop hooey. Hysteria by definition is not built on cautious statements and solid science.

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